Why Yemen Is Not Egypt

With the winds of change blowing across the Arab world many news organizations are focusing on Yemen as a potential next Egypt. My analysis is Yemen will not descend into chaos as Egypt, or at least Cairo, has. Why? Simple. The people of Yemen do not hate President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

President Saleh has a remarkable touch with the people of Yemen. He's actually a pretty hard working president who is seen regularly on television at various ribbon cutting ceremonies across the country - from large scale projects to small schools - Ali is there, with the people, promoting the interests of the country. President Saleh's sons have a respectable reputation and - unlike other sons of Arab leaders - they have not run rampant over the population.

In the 2006 Yemen presidential election Ali Abdullah Saleh won the vote with a reported 77%. International election monitors were welcomed and the results were reported as generally fair. In a region where president/dictators generally win with 99% of the vote this result was monumental as a standard for transparency and fairness in elections for the region. Furthermore, it may not have been too far off the mark.

The Saleh regime has managed to keep the faith with the people of Yemen. Yemenis enjoy perhaps more freedoms than any other Arab nation. Civil society institutions are permitted and encouraged by grants from the Social Fund For Development. The Yemeni press has issues with the government, however, relative to other Arab states it enjoys an incredible amount of freedom of expression.

Yemenis understand that their country faces some monumental problems. Yemen is the poorest Arab state, unemployment and illiteracy are rampant - both figures perhaps hover around 50%. The nation faces a crushing water shortage. The list of development concerns is endless.

The winds of change are blowing across the Arab region - and if they continue to do so for an extended time the Saleh regime could be vulnerable. Most Yemenis do have concerns about the pace of change and the level of commitment to democracy that the Saleh regime embraces. But they are generally willing to extend President Saleh more time - with limits. For now the social contract that President Saleh has earned through genuine concern for the nation will stand.

The Tyrant's Strategy

The Tyrant's Strategy

Not much new today in Mr. Mubarek's speech. He is an arrogant tyrant. 'You need me!' He appears to be daring his people - staring them down. He may have just signed his own exit papers along the same lines of Mussolini. It appears increasingly clear to me that Hosni Mubarek's strategy is to starve the citadel of his people of food, gas and money. This is accomplished by creating shortages of food and gas - Egypt is a command economy in many ways, and by cutting off access to cash machines connected to the internet. The police have abdicated. Prison doors have been opened. Police weapons are now in the hands of criminal and jack-booted police. Mr. Mubarek's strategy hinges on creating a crisis situation in the hope/expectation that the populace will eventually riot, the freedom movement will crumble and turn on itself, and therefore the military and Hosni Mubarek will be in a position to 'save' the nation by sending in a hard-line military response.